2027 NBA Rookie of the Year Race: Boozer vs Peterson vs Dybantsa

The 2027 Rookie of the Year race is unusual before a single regular-season game has tipped: the No. 1 overall pick is not the favorite. Sportsbooks opened Memphis forward Cameron Boozer and Utah guard Darryn Peterson as co-favorites, with Washington's AJ Dybantsa — the actual first pick — a step behind. That gap is not a knock on Dybantsa's ceiling. It is a read on opportunity.

Rookie of the Year rewards the player who gets the ball, plays the minutes, and puts up counting numbers on a team happy to let him learn on the job. Last season proved it: Spurs guard Dylan Harper's rookie run and Cooper Flagg's award-winning year both leaned on huge on-ball roles. This piece breaks down each contender by the thing that actually decides the award — role and usage — then makes a reasoned pick with the caveat every preseason projection deserves. For the full breakdown of why Washington took Dybantsa first, see our explainer on the Wizards' No. 1 pick.

Who is the early 2027 Rookie of the Year favorite?

Boozer and Peterson are the co-favorites at +300 apiece, with Dybantsa and Chicago's Caleb Wilson tied one rung down at +400 (FanDuel, July 21, 2026). Odds shift by book — BetMGM has floated Boozer and Wilson as co-favorites — but every major market agrees on the shape: no runaway leader, and the top pick outside the top spot.

Here is the field at a glance — where each landed, the role they are walking into, their 2026 Summer League line, and the core case for the award.

Player	Team (2026 pick)	Projected role	2026 Summer League	ROY case
Darryn Peterson	Utah Jazz (No. 2)	Lead ball-handler, primary scorer	20.7 PPG, 4.0 APG, 1.3 BPG	Cleanest path to volume on a rebuilding team
Cameron Boozer	Memphis Grizzlies (No. 3)	Featured forward, secondary creator	18.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 3.7 APG	Highest floor; do-everything box score
AJ Dybantsa	Washington Wizards (No. 1)	Wing scorer behind veterans	25.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.5 SPG	Best raw scoring upside; fit is the risk
Caleb Wilson	Chicago Bulls	Athletic combo forward	Strong Vegas showing vs. Boozer	Dark horse if minutes open up

The case for Cameron Boozer — and the case against

Boozer is the safest bet in the field because he fills a box score without needing a defined role handed to him. In Las Vegas he averaged 18.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.8 steals, and carried Memphis to the Summer League championship game — a 24-point semifinal against Atlanta and a 19-point, eight-rebound title-game loss to Golden State (NBA.com, July 2026).

The case for: Rookie of the Year voters reward availability and all-around lines, and Boozer produces both. A forward who rebounds, passes and defends does not depend on a hot shooting month the way a pure scorer does. On a Grizzlies team in transition, the touches are there, and his playmaking (3.7 assists per Summer League game) means he adds value even on nights the shot is off.

The case against: Boozer's Summer League scoring efficiency wobbled — a 4-of-12 night against Golden State in group play, and a 7-of-17 title game — and he is not a high-volume three-point shooter. If Memphis is competitive and stagger his minutes behind established veterans, his counting stats could plateau in the mid-teens, which rarely wins the award outright.

The case for Darryn Peterson — and the case against

Peterson is the usage bet. Utah drafted him second to be the on-ball engine of a rebuild, and Summer League backed the projection: 20.7 points, 4.0 assists, 1.0 steal and 1.3 blocks per game (SI/FanDuel, July 2026) — a scoring guard's line with defensive flashes most lead guards don't offer.

The case for: Nobody in this class has a clearer runway to volume. A rebuilding Utah roster has every reason to hand Peterson the keys, absorb the mistakes, and let him shoot his way through a 30-minute nightly role. High usage on a losing team is the classic Rookie of the Year formula — it is how plenty of past winners got there, and Peterson's guard scoring translates most directly to points-per-game totals voters see first.

The case against: That same rebuild can cut both ways. Losing teams sometimes cap young-guard minutes for development or rest, and a ball-dominant rookie guard tends to post rough efficiency and turnover numbers. If Peterson's shooting splits sag under a heavy load, the counting stats stay loud but the "is he actually good yet" narrative — which sways late-season voters — could tilt toward a more efficient rival.

The case for AJ Dybantsa — and the case against

Dybantsa was the No. 1 pick for a reason: he posted the loudest Summer League line of the three, 25.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.5 steals, 2.0 assists and 1.5 blocks per game for Washington (SI/FanDuel, July 2026). On raw scoring upside, he may be the most gifted player in the class.

The case for: If the Wizards commit to Dybantsa as a featured wing scorer, his ceiling is the highest in the field — a two-way forward who can fill it up and defend multiple positions. Washington's roster is not built to win now, which historically means minutes and shots flow to the young building block. Give him 30-plus minutes and green light, and the counting stats can outrun everyone.

The case against: Fit is the real risk. His Summer League efficiency was shaky — 39.4% from the field and 9.1% from three across the sample — and Washington's veteran wings could compress his early role. A No. 1 pick learning to score efficiently against NBA length, on a team that may slow-play his usage, is exactly the profile that opens as the third betting choice. The talent is not in doubt; the nightly opportunity is. Watch Washington's first ten games: if Dybantsa is closing quarters and clearing 30 minutes, the odds gap disappears fast. If he is being brought along in the low 20s, the counting stats simply won't be there to win a volume award, no matter how good the flashes look.

Does opportunity decide Rookie of the Year more than talent?

Mostly, yes. Rookie of the Year is a counting-stat award, and counting stats are a function of usage and minutes before they are a function of talent. The best player in a class does not win it if a better team keeps his role small; the third-best prospect wins it if a bad team hands him the ball 30 times a night. That is why the betting market ranks these three by projected role, not by draft position.

The recent past reinforces the pattern. Cooper Flagg's 2026 award came with a 21-point, near triple-threat nightly role in Dallas, and Spurs guard Dylan Harper pushed into the conversation off a heavy on-ball workload in San Antonio. Neither won on efficiency alone — they won on volume the team gave them early and never took back. The lesson for 2027: track the depth chart as closely as the scouting report.

Two levers decide this race. The first is minutes: whichever of Boozer, Peterson or Dybantsa clears 30 per game earliest has the inside track. The second is shot volume on a team that tolerates losses — the profile Peterson fits best and Dybantsa fits only if Washington fully commits.

The dark horse: keep an eye on Chicago's Caleb Wilson, who opened at +400 and outdueled Boozer in stretches of Summer League. If injuries or a roster clear-out hand Wilson a featured role in Chicago, an athletic combo forward with scoring pop is exactly the kind of mid-market name that crashes these races by February. Rookie of the Year has a long history of a fourth option nobody projected in July finishing top three.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win 2027 NBA Rookie of the Year?

Cameron Boozer and Darryn Peterson opened as co-favorites at +300, ahead of AJ Dybantsa and Caleb Wilson at +400 (FanDuel, July 21, 2026). Odds vary by sportsbook, and no player opened as a clear runaway favorite — an unusually tight three-to-four-way market.

Why isn't AJ Dybantsa the favorite if he was the No. 1 pick?

Rookie of the Year is driven by usage and minutes, not draft slot. Dybantsa lands on a Washington roster with veteran wings that could limit his early role, while Peterson and Boozer project to featured jobs from opening night. Draft position and award odds often diverge for exactly this reason.

What did the 2027 contenders average in 2026 Summer League?

Per SI/FanDuel and NBA.com (July 2026): Dybantsa put up 25.0 points, 7.0 rebounds and 2.5 steals; Peterson 20.7 points, 4.0 assists and 1.3 blocks; Boozer 18.5 points, 8.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists while leading Memphis to the Summer League final.

Who won the 2026 NBA Rookie of the Year?

Cooper Flagg of the Dallas Mavericks won 2026 Rookie of the Year over Charlotte's Kon Knueppel, averaging 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists (Yahoo Sports, 2026). His huge on-ball role is the template this 2027 class is chasing.

Which team does each 2027 contender play for?

AJ Dybantsa went No. 1 to the Washington Wizards, Darryn Peterson No. 2 to the Utah Jazz, and Cameron Boozer No. 3 to the Memphis Grizzlies in the 2026 NBA Draft (Yahoo Sports, June 2026). Caleb Wilson landed with the Chicago Bulls.

So who wins the 2027 Rookie of the Year?

If forced to pick today, take Darryn Peterson — narrowly. His path to a high-usage, 30-minute lead-guard role on a rebuilding Jazz team is the cleanest in the field, and scoring-guard volume is the most direct route to the counting stats voters weigh first. Boozer is the safest floor and the pick if you value all-around production over raw points; Dybantsa has the highest ceiling and would be the front-runner the moment Washington commits to him as the offense.

The caveat is the whole story: this projection is built on preseason odds and Summer League, and Rookie of the Year is decided by who actually gets the ball come November. Minutes and role can shift with one trade, one injury, or one coach's rotation decision. Watch which of these three clears 30 minutes a night first — that player, not the highest draft pick, is your 2027 Rookie of the Year.